Solar energy production: Short-term forecasting and risk management

نویسندگان

  • Cédric Join
  • Michel Fliess
  • Cyril Voyant
  • Frédéric Chaxel
چکیده

Electricity production via solar energy is tackled via short-term forecasts and risk management. Our main tool is a new setting on time series. It allows the definition of “confidence bands” where the Gaussian assumption, which is not satisfied by our concrete data, may be abandoned. Those bands are quite convenient and easily implementable. Numerous computer simulations are presented.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Combination of Transformed-means Clustering and Neural Networks for Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecasting

In order to provide an efficient conversion and utilization of solar power, solar radiation datashould be measured continuously and accurately over the long-term period. However, the measurement ofsolar radiation is not available to all countries in the world due to some technical and fiscal limitations. Hence,several studies were proposed in the literature to find mathematical and physical mod...

متن کامل

Solar Irradiance Forecasting for the Management of Solar Energy Systems

Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its fluctuating nature an efficient use will require reliable forecast information of its availability in various time and spatial scales depending on the application. The current status of forecasting solar irradiance for energy generation purposes is briefly reviewed with respect to very short-term ...

متن کامل

Short Term Load Forecasting by Using ESN Neural Network Hamedan Province Case Study

Abstract Forecasting electrical energy demand and consumption is one of the important decision-making tools in distributing companies for making contracts scheduling and purchasing electrical energy. This paper studies load consumption modeling in Hamedan city province distribution network by applying ESN neural network. Weather forecasting data such as minimum day temperature, average day temp...

متن کامل

Effect of Wind Turbine, Solar Cells and Storages in Short Term Operation of Coupled Electricity and Gas Infrastructures in Different Climates

The biggest challenges faced in big cities are greenhouse gas emission and growing energy needs. Efficient utilization of existing infrastructures has a prominent role in response to the challenges. Energy hub approach embraces performance of different energy networks. Energy hub is defined as a super node in electrical system receiving distinctive energy carriers such as gas and electricity in...

متن کامل

Short and Mid-Term Wind Power Plants Forecasting With ANN

In recent years, wind energy has a remarkable growth in the world, but one of the important problems of power generated from wind is its uncertainty and corresponding power. For solving this problem, some approaches have been presented. Recently, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a heuristic method has more applications for this propose. In this paper, short-term (1 hour) and mid-term (24...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • CoRR

دوره abs/1602.06295  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2016